TDM in 2005 - What's Ahead in '06?

In 2005, we saw gas prices rise (and fall) with an increase in the demand for ridesharing services at many of the country's largest TDM programs.

We saw the passage - finally - of SAFETEA-LU which is loaded with opportunities for TDM programs (and some challenges).

In late 2005, the IRS increased the qualified transportation fringe benefit for only parking, making the gap between parking and transit/vanpool even wider. The tax free limit for parking increases by $5 per month to $205 but transit and vanpooling remain at $105.

So what do you think is in store for 2006?

Universal name for TDM

What are your favorite "consumer names" for TDM? Many agencies have adopted their own name for TDM but there is no name that is universally used, so our profession effectively does not have a name of what we do! :-0 A group of TDM professionals in the Seattle area plan to select one name for TDM and agree to all use it.

Here are examples of TDM names used by specific groups. I welcome your suggestions.

Travel Options
Transportation Options
Transportation Choices
Healthy Transport
Active Transportation
SmartTravel
Trip Reduction

We hope the one name would catch on in our region and beyond resulting in a word which is universally recognized and understood by the public. Please note that selecting one name for TDM will not replace the names of any individual TDM modes and programs such as Home Free Guarantee, carsharing, Flexcar, Rideshareonline, In Motion, Wheel Options, etc. In fact, if all these modes and programs can describe themselves with the same TDM term, they will all benefit from the promotion of all the other TDM programs.

When you think about it, it's amazing that we don't have a universally accepted name for what we do. What do you say when people ask you what you do? You don't have simple word like banker, engineer, finance analyst, etc. Imagine if the word "recycling" were not universally used, and every city and company called it something different. This nameless concept would seem marginal, and when someone heard about a program to sort garbage and reduce waste they would not immediately identify it as part of the countless recycling programs which collectively have a major impact.

Please let me know if you'd like to be more closely involved in this effort. thanks!

David Allen, MCP
Senior Planner, Seattle Dept. of Transportation (SDOT)

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TDM Talk

The conventional wisdom in the TDM arena is that incentives are good as well as necessary. We spend quite a bit of time coming up with new ways to provide incentives to help commuters find a different way of getting to and from work.

And, the field is not too hot on disincentives although there will always be advocates for pushing on that approach.

There is old evidence that making the commute a completely level playing field (i.e. no free parking, no transit passes, no discounts for carpools, no subsidies for vanpools ... in an area where parking comes with a cost) yields about the same drive alone rate as does providing incentives for ridesharing and transit. The "old" ARCO vs. Bank of America example is the prime candidate for this example.

Another argument about offering incentives is that if the incentives stop, commuters go back to however they were commuting before.

Give-aways, raffles, drawings, and promotions are frequently used and are regularly criticized for leading to "higher numbers" but not much real result. Effectiveness depends on who was recruited, what information was provided, and many other factors.

The question of this blog: Do you advocate the provision of incentives to cause a reduction in drive alone commuting? Why or why not? The question and answer may seem obvious but after talking with many states, MPOs, local governments, and others around the country, the issue is not universally obvious.

What is your best argument (either way)?

-- Tad

Taking a swim in a very big pond

It is no secret that most state DOTs view themselves as in somewhat of a funding crisis. With congestion on the rise, rising fuel costs placing political pressure to temporarily suspend gas taxes, and long term concerns of fuel tax revenue decline, many states have encouraged the development of alternative financing programs. Some illustrative examples of the type of program developments that have occurred in the past year include:

• The Trans-Texas Corridor, a privately financed mega-corridor system in Texas including toll lanes, truck lanes, high speed rail, and utility pipelines.
• Oregon's Innovative Partnerships Program, encouraging the development of network tolling, HOT lanes, or other toll alternatives on three mega projects of statewide importance.
• Chicago Skyway concession agreement, whereby an investment group receives a 99 year agreement to toll the Chicago Skyway (with annual toll increases) in exchange for a present-term transfer of $1.8B to the City of Chicago.

Arguably, the glue that holds all of these programs together is tolling. Other states that are advancing toll programs include California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia. Not everything is rosy in the world of tolling, though. Significant political opposition has been raised in every state where tolling has been proposed -- a quick review of the Texas Toll Party shows what life can be like facing public opposition to tolling.

Despite political opposition, it is clear that these states and others will continue to advance toll projects to address perceived financing shortfalls. The question for TDM professionals is the role we play in these projects. Let's be clear -- this is a big money, big influence environment. Project costs usually are articulated in B's, not M's or T's. TDM does not bring any significant money to the table. What we do bring includes partnerships with developers, chambers, and employers and existing mechanisms for outreach to commuters. What other roles can we play? How do we advance considerations for carpools, vanpools, and buses in toll facilities, when so much pressure will be placed to maximize revenues? Are there appropriate carpool and vanpool considerations that do not involve toll discounts or waivers?

In short, how can we swim in the big pond?

Where is matching going?

Rideshare matching, while an important function in most metropolitan areas, isn't seen as all that important by some. Databases are small in most areas. Placement rates are debated. And, over the past few years, additional matching services and capabilities have arrived. Witness Craig's List, erideshare, and more.

It is likely that no matching system in place 15 years ago is in operation today. No vendor of ridematching systems operating then is offering a matching system or service today as far as I know. (This statement is probably true for a shorter time than suggested here.) What may be in place in 5, 10, or 15 years is unknowable but history would tell us there will be high turnover, new services, and faded services.

However, one person matched could mean over 400 vehicle trips eliminated for the following year. The databases can be mined for more results than are typically sought. Spending $200 (or so) in public funds on one placement isn't all that expensive in that light.

Where is the matching function going? Are we going to see lots of small matching systems with capabilities spread even thinner? Are we going to see integration of matching capabilities?

And what of less-than-matchable outcomes? (telecommuting, walking, bicycling, changed work hours, etc.) How should we be treating those in on-line services in the future?

-- Tad

Sustainable Housing and the Global Oil Peak

I'm posting the following question from Stuart Rose that was posed to the TRANSP-TDM listserv today and has generated some additional discussion about whether or when the global peak in oil will be reached.

"I'm currently completing development of a prototype cluster of sustainable houses. The houses provide their own power, water, hot water, etc. It's not that difficult. However, since this effort began, about five years ago, the definition of what "sustainable" includes has expanded. The next generation of these houses will need to take the form of small communities that are totally self-reliant ... for power, water, wastewater treatment, solid waste management ... and even food.

My guess is, we hit Global Peak Oil in 2000, when Saudi peaked. We're already experiencing all the early signs of what will be a post-oil economy ... and world. Within 3-5 years, semis will likely be virtually gone from highways. Transportation will need to shift, to respond to development of many small communities - much like the pre-industrial revolution hamlets, except with most of modern technology.

The best way, on the surface, to connect smaller communities with a larger one would be rapid transit. Then, hi-speed rail between major cities. And probably only air for trips over 1,000 miles or so. But I'm not a multimodal transportation planner.

My questions:

1. What criteria determine when different modes are justified? Population numbers? Density? Distance?

2. How would these modes be funded? Government seems fairly inept at managing a rail system; ours is one of the worst in the world. How to determine what role is best for private companies and what for government?

3. As these small communities evolve, they could connect via electric car or bus to small towns, of perhaps 8,000 to 80,000 or more. Would counties simply somehow maintain small roads for that connectivity?

4. Do you know of one or two resource people who might be able to describe how such a pattern would - or would not - be justified? initiated? funded? managed?

In planning for these small sustainable communities, I also have to think about their context - connectedness to other communities.

Thanks for whatever help you might be able to provide."

Stuart W. Rose, Ph.D.
Garden Atriums

H.R.3893 - Gasoline for America's Security Act of 2005

There are several sections of H.R.3893 (beginning with Section 301) that could move from encouraging people to save energy to actually helping save energy by funding the groups that help people form carpools and vanpools (and, yes, household carpools count).

This bill was introduced this week by Congressman Barton (R-TX) and says "The Secretary [of Energy] may make grants to State and local governments for carpooling or vanpooling projects. The Secretary may make such a grant only if at least 50 percent of the costs of the project will be provided by the State or local government."

I could see these funds being used to allow state and local governments to cope with surges in demand (e.g., add staff to increase service hours, expand Internet ridematching efforts, acquire additional vehicles for vanpooling, increase outreach to employers to enroll more of them in programs such as Best Workplaces of Commuters(tm)).

President Bush Directs Executive Departments and Agencies to Conserve Energy, including Carpool, Telecommute, and Transit

President Bush sent a memo to heads of executive departments and agencies that included the following, "All agencies should conserve fuel so we can reduce overall demand and allow extra supplies to be directed towards the hurricane relief effort. In particular[emphasis added], agencies should temporarily curtail non-essential travel and other activities that use gasoline or diesel fuel, and encourage employees to carpool, telecommute, and use public transportation to reduce fuel use."

Furthermore, agencies have to report back through the Secretary of Energy, within 30 days, on the fuel conservation actions taken.

Will the agencies do anything new related to commuting options, especially OUTSIDE the National Capital Region? Most of the commute benefit programs are aimed only to federal agencies "within the Beltway".

Will it be smoke and mirrors? Reporting what is already being done?

At the same time, will TDM agencies use this memo to open doors/enhance relationships with federal agencies in their areas?

I guess we'll see in 30 days.

Do we have any examples of "affinity" marketing for carpooling, vanpooling, transit, and related modes? What marketing campaigns have focused on ties with groups, interests, causes, etc.? What was done, what did it cost, and what results were achieved?

Is there any evaluation (quantitative, before and after, not purely anecdotal) which examines similarities, differences, effectiveness, etc. between information campaigns, incentive campaigns, affinity campaigns, and other approaches?

-- Tad

TDM and Hurricane Recovery

Transportation issues are the story after Hurricane Katrina's evacuation failures and 2 mph travel speeds on major Interstates as Hurricane Rita bears down on Texas/LA. Who would have thought Americans now know what "contraflow" means. What's next? "Demand Management"?

Even as people begin to hunker down (a term that we Floridians came to know last year), we need to look at transportation needs when these cities begin recovering. Certainly, transit will be an option but we need to demand that communities look at the likeliehood of dispersed home and work locations. We also assume that gas supplies (and prices) may be effected in the short term. We need to look NOW.

More to the point, why aren't transportation demand management agencies being brought into the discussion? And will TDM programs be prepared to help? Do they have an emergency preparedness plan?

Clearly, the devastation that has and will occur will increase demands for TDM programs and services like carpools and vanpools (and telework). Many people may have to live in temporary housing further away from work; perhaps very far away. Many will have vehicles that are inoperable due to water damage (or the fact that their vehicle was last seen sitting on the roof of a building). Their employers may have had to relocate, too. While telework may work for some, not all jobs are teleworkable (is that a word?).

So ... what can we do now? Certainly, ridematching programs and 800 telephone numbers don't require a local presence. TDM agencies on the West Coast could help expand service hours, for example. Online ridematching systems could be implemented.

Will we need temporary protections for employers that promote ridesharing in states that don't already have that protection? Will the feds revise Section 132(f) to allow employers to provide tax free qualified transportation fringe benefits to employees for carpooling and biking, too (like transit and vanpools)? Are emergency ride home programs sufficent? Will FEMA funds be available to help TDM agencies reach out to commuters and employers?

There are many questions to be answered (and apparently fingers to be pointed) to get America moving again. We need to start answering them today.

Clearinghouse enters with world of blogs

The National TDM and Telework Clearinghouseat the National Center for Transit Research located at the University of South Florida created the popular TRANSP-TDM listserv to facilitate the exchange of information about transportation demand management nearly 7 years ago. Since then 800 subscribers have joined.

At the suggestion of one of the subscribers, we are venturing into the world of blogs to continue to enhance the exchange of ideas and opinions.

However, we will continue to support the listserv, too.