I'm posting the following question from Stuart Rose that was posed to the TRANSP-TDM listserv today and has generated some additional discussion about whether or when the global peak in oil will be reached.
"I'm currently completing development of a prototype cluster of sustainable houses. The houses provide their own power, water, hot water, etc. It's not that difficult. However, since this effort began, about five years ago, the definition of what "sustainable" includes has expanded. The next generation of these houses will need to take the form of small communities that are totally self-reliant ... for power, water, wastewater treatment, solid waste management ... and even food.
My guess is, we hit Global Peak Oil in 2000, when Saudi peaked. We're already experiencing all the early signs of what will be a post-oil economy ... and world. Within 3-5 years, semis will likely be virtually gone from highways. Transportation will need to shift, to respond to development of many small communities - much like the pre-industrial revolution hamlets, except with most of modern technology.
The best way, on the surface, to connect smaller communities with a larger one would be rapid transit. Then, hi-speed rail between major cities. And probably only air for trips over 1,000 miles or so. But I'm not a multimodal transportation planner.
My questions:
1. What criteria determine when different modes are justified? Population numbers? Density? Distance?
2. How would these modes be funded? Government seems fairly inept at managing a rail system; ours is one of the worst in the world. How to determine what role is best for private companies and what for government?
3. As these small communities evolve, they could connect via electric car or bus to small towns, of perhaps 8,000 to 80,000 or more. Would counties simply somehow maintain small roads for that connectivity?
4. Do you know of one or two resource people who might be able to describe how such a pattern would - or would not - be justified? initiated? funded? managed?
In planning for these small sustainable communities, I also have to think about their context - connectedness to other communities.
Thanks for whatever help you might be able to provide."
Stuart W. Rose, Ph.D.
Garden Atriums
4 comments:
The following is being reposted here from an earlier post to the TRANSP-TDM listserv.
"Some of the premises formulating the basis for this initiative are
debatable, thereby jeopardizing its success.
Saudis now appear to be suggesting there are decades worth of oil to
exploit. See web link below.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article315546.ece
Many 'experts' see the period of peak oil to still be in the future.
See page 19 of the following pdf document.
http://www.physics.unc.edu/about/robertsonseminars/hirschstudy.pdf
As reported in the following US Bureau of Transportation Statistics
website, semi-trucks move a significant percentage of total freight
tonnage in the United States. To suggest they will be gone from the
nation's highways within 3-5 years dramatically begs the question, "What
replaces them?"
http://www.bts.gov/programs/freight_transportation/html/trucking.html
Regards,
Bob Ancar
New York State Department of Transportation
Office of Policy and Performance"
Comments below (none of them directed to Dr. Rose's original questions) [first posted to the TRANSP-TDM listserv].
Robert Ancar (comments in italics:) wrote:
Some of the premises formulating the basis for this initiative are debatable, thereby jeopardizing its success.
Saudis now appear to be suggesting there are decades worth of oil to exploit. See web link below.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article315546.ece
The key item in this article is the claim that there are 3 trillion additional barrels of reserves. Most authorities to date have been arguing about whether there were 1.9 or 2.0 trillion barrels total, of which we have extracted about half, hence the peak oil conclusion. The alleged Exxon claim amounts to saying that there were 4 trillion barrelso originally and that we have used only about one quarter of the total in the past 100 (or so) years. Sure enough, Exxon's 2004 Energy Outlook presentation seems to indicate that. That, in turn, suggests that the peak may not occur, even with increasing global demand, for many decades. That indeed is amazing, not only for thinking about energy futures but carbon-induced global warming. We may be off the hook for petroleum energy supplies but on the hook for violent climate change if we don't alter something.
Many 'experts' see the period of peak oil to still be in the future. See page 19 of the following pdf document.
http://www.physics.unc.edu/about/robertsonseminars/hirschstudy.pdf
Most of the experts argue about a band of 5 to 10 years for the peak to be reached, with this year being at or near the start of the band. The uncertainty is related to the 2.0 versus 1.9 trillion barrel estimate.
Shell has a higher number but it's Shell, among other large producers, that have recently seriously lowered their reserve estimates.
So what does Exxon know that the rest of the industry doesn't?
To be conservative, until I get some more evidence of the Exxon position, I'll stick with Colin Campbell's estimates, which happen to be close to those of BP.
As reported in the following US Bureau of Transportation Statistics
website, semi-trucks move a significant percentage of total freight tonnage in the United States. To suggest they will be gone from the nation's highways within 3-5 years dramatically begs the question, "What replaces them?"
http://www.bts.gov/programs/freight_transportation/html/trucking.html
I agree that the inertia of the system will take longer than a few years to dissipate but consider the effects that Katrina has already had in raising prices and altering behavior because of the impacts on petroleum.
Jack M. Nilles
JALA International, Inc.
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